Aftershocks of 2011

A thought recently occurred to me that 7 years on from the historic general election of 2011, we are still feeling its effects. Three recent events have led me to this view.

The first is the biggest; the repeal of the 8th amendment. The margin of victory begs the question as to why it took so long for repeal to happen and why getting to the point of repeal was so politically controversial and tortuous.

The simply answer to this is Fianna Fail (FF). FF were the pro-life party. They backed the 8th amendment in 1983, where FG were divided and Labour were against. Bertie Ahern's government sought to tighten the constitutional ban on abortion in 2001 (and lost by the narrowest of margins). The RTE exit poll from the 2018 referendum showed that FF voters were the most pro-life. 

FF were the political vanguard of the pro-life movement. And with their dominance came, amongst many other things, the domination of a pro-life point of view. So what happened to FF? Well, in 2011 Ireland's natural party of government imploded in spectacular form. The financial crisis crashed the economy and it crashed FF with it.

With FF swept from power, the space was made for a pro-choice point of view to emerge. I don't mean to suggest that the Irish people were really pro-choice all along, or at least since the X-case, and that FF hegemony repressed this.

The role of the party since the 60s was to reconcile a foreign direct investment-led liberal capitalism with the traditional national narrative. Its iconic leaders since the 60s - Lynch, Haughey, Ahern - were about making the old and new gel, ensuring that no democratic disenchantment emerged.

The economic and the traditional were always in friction with each other. When the economic model blew up, FF blew up with it. And with them, the careful balancing of old and new ended. Fast forward 7 years and the economy is back on track, but FF is only a shell of its former self. The economic now dictates everything, with no countermanding narrative to keep it in check. 

The second event is FF's endorsement of Michael D Higgins for re-election to the presidency. That this may be smart politics in the current environment is neither here nor there. The fact is we've come a long way since the days when the party practically owned the presidency.

The third event is the appointment of a British security agent to the role of Garda commissioner, something welcomed by FF. Again, probably smart politics, but indicative of the extent to which "the republican party" dances to the tune set by others rather than its own nationalist instincts.

Had FG won the 2007 general election on the eve of the crash, and had FF got back into power with a mandate and a majority to last them a decade, FF would be continuing to do what it used to, rather than following the liberal trends as set by others.